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The Nest

Baltimore Ravens Betting Intelligence

Season
2026 Offseason
Record
8-9 (2025)
Bet of the Week
Updated April 27, 2026
LOCK
88
LOCK
Lamar Jackson
Season Rushing Yards
OVER 850.5-115

Jackson averaged 49.5 rushing yards per game in 2024 — that's 841 over 17 games. In 2026, with Vega Ioane creating elite interior lanes and new OC Doyle's dual-threat system, Jackson is primed to surpass 900 rushing yards. He's done it twice in his career. The 850.5 line is set conservatively based on his down 2025 season (8-9 (2025 archived), limited rushing). This is the single best season-long futures bet on the board.

Vega Ioane (R1 OG) creates the best rushing lanes Jackson has ever had
New OC Doyle's system is built around Jackson's dual-threat ability
Jackson averaged 49.5 rush yds/game in 2024 — 850.5 is a low bar
Jackson has surpassed 900 rushing yards in 2 of his last 4 seasons
Units
Wager$4.00
Confidence88%
Guru Note

This is the Guru's highest conviction season-long prop. 4 units. Place this early before the line moves.

Bet on DraftKings
Current Bankroll
$100.00
+$0.00 (+0.0%)
Progress to 4x0%
$100Target: $400
Win/Loss
0
Wins
—
0
Losses
ROI
+0.0%
Unit Value
$1.00
Per Unit (1%)
1U$1.00
2U$2.00
3U$3.00
4U$4.00
5U$5.00
Active Bets
0
Pending
Total Bets
0

Top Plays — Guru Picks

Derrick Henry
Rushing Yards • O/U 88.5
LOCK
87
LOCK
EV:+21.9%ELITEKelly: 5U
4U$4.00
-118

Henry ran for 1,595 yards in 2025 (17 games) — 93.8 per game average. With Vega Ioane replacing Linderbaum at guard AND Trey Hendrickson drawing double teams that open run lanes, Henry's 2026 outlook is elite. He's 31 but showed zero signs of decline. The Ravens' new OC Doyle loves physical running — Henry is the centerpiece.

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Lamar Jackson
Rushing Yards • O/U 55.5
LOCK
85
LOCK
EV:+19.2%ELITEKelly: 5U
4U$4.00
-120

Jackson is the most dangerous rushing QB in NFL history. With Vega Ioane and John Simpson creating lanes, his rushing lanes get wider in 2026. He averaged 26.8 rushing yards per game in 2025 — but that was a down year. In 2024 he averaged 49.5. Expect a bounce-back rushing season. OVER is the play all year.

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Trey Hendrickson
Sacks • O/U 12.5
LOCK
82
LOCK
EV:+17.8%ELITEKelly: 5U
4U$4.00
-115

Hendrickson led the NFL in sacks in 2024 and was the No. 1 free agent in 2026. He's joining a Ravens defense under Jesse Minter — a defensive mastermind who will scheme Hendrickson into favorable matchups constantly. Paired with Zion Young on the other side, opposing OTs can't double-team Hendrickson every play. 13+ sacks is very achievable.

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Best Game Play

Ravens -6.5 vs. AFC North opponents (home)
spread • pregameVALUE
79
STRONG
3U$3.00
-110
DraftKings

The Ravens have historically dominated AFC North opponents at M&T Bank Stadium. With Trey Hendrickson joining the pass rush and Vega Ioane anchoring the OL, the Ravens' home advantage is amplified. Jesse Minter's defensive identity will be most pronounced in divisional games where he has extra prep time.

Trey Hendrickson vs. divisional OTs
Derrick Henry's home rushing splits
Jesse Minter's defensive scheme advantage
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2026 Offseason Moves

Signed

EDGE
Trey Hendrickson
4yr / $112M ($60M guaranteed)
Former Bengals sack leader — No. 1 free agent in 2026. Gives Ravens a proven 15+ sack threat alongside Zion Young. Massive upgrade to pass rush.
ELITE
OG
John Simpson
Veteran deal
Pairs with Vega Ioane to anchor the interior OL. Experienced guard who knows the system.
STARTER
S
Jaylinn Hawkins
Veteran deal
Safety depth behind Malaki Starks and Kyle Hamilton.
DEPTH
TE
Durham Smythe
Veteran deal
Blocking TE depth while Hibner and Cuevas develop.
DEPTH
OL
Jovaughn Gwyn
Veteran deal
Interior OL depth and versatility.
DEPTH

Departed

C
Tyler Linderbaum
→ Las Vegas Raiders
3x Pro Bowl center — biggest loss of the offseason. Vega Ioane + Beerntsen must fill this void.
MAJOR LOSS
TE
Isaiah Likely
→ New York Giants
Reliable TE2 behind Andrews. Hibner and Cuevas are the replacements.
SIGNIFICANT LOSS
P
Jordan Stout
→ New York Giants
All-Pro punter replaced by rookie Ryan Eckley.
MODERATE
FB
Patrick Ricard
→ Free Agent
Pro Bowl fullback — his role may be absorbed by Adam Randall.
MODERATE
TE
Charlie Kolar
→ Free Agent
Backup TE depth gone — replaced by draft picks.
DEPTH
OT
Daniel Faalele
→ Free Agent
Backup OT depth departed.
DEPTH

New Coaching Staff

Jesse Minter
Head Coach

Promoted from DC after John Harbaugh's firing. Michigan DC background — expects physical, disciplined football.

Declan Doyle
Offensive Coordinator

New OC — schematic overhaul incoming. Expect more 11 personnel and bigger receiver usage.

Ravens Betting Trends

Ravens are 18-9 ATS as home favorites over the last 3 seasons
Lamar Jackson is 28-14 ATS in his career as a starter
Ravens OVER hit in 7 of last 8 games before the 2025 bye week
Ravens are 8-2 ATS vs. AFC North opponents at home under Harbaugh era
Ravens as road underdogs (+3 to +7): 6-2 ATS over last 4 seasons
First half OVER hit in 11 of 17 Ravens games in 2025
Derrick Henry OVER rushing yards hit in 11 of 17 games in 2025
Ravens defense held opponents UNDER their season avg in 9 of 17 games in 2025